The fossil fuel comeback is here

The US is building more fossil fuel infrastructure than it has in a decade while renewable energy growth slows down, a new report shows.

Electricity demand is also climbing faster than it has in more than a decade with more data centers, factories, and electric vehicles plugging into the grid. Despite those growing demands, the Trump administration has sought to hobble the wind and solar industries in favor of fossil fuels.

America’s energy landscape is already shifting as a result, according to the report published last week by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund and research firm Atlas Public Policy. If all the gas projects in the development pipeline complete construction, they could lock in more pollution and higher electricity prices for decades, the authors warn.

“The U.S. power sector is at a new inflection point, with decisions made today shaping the cost, reliability, and emissions profile of the grid for decades to come,” the report says.

While the US still generates 60 percent of its electricity from fossil fuels, renewables have quickly gained ground. Wind and solar produced more electricity together than coal for the first time in 2024. Solar was the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation that year, accounting for 81 percent of added capacity. Globally, solar has become the cheapest power source in most of the world.

Then Donald Trump stepped into his second term as president with a plan to “drill, baby, drill” for fossil fuels, his preferred power source for energy-hungry data centers. His administration has sought to kill renewable energy projects by issuing stop work orders, blocking permits, and removing tax incentives. We’re still seeing a rush of new solar and wind farms driven by relatively low costs, although many of them make up the last wave of projects that benefited from Biden-era incentives.

The winds are shifting in favor of gas-fired power plants. Plans for new fossil fuel infrastructure climbed from just 5 percent of all new capacity in 2024 to 30 percent by the second quarter of 2026, according to the new report, which analyzes data from the US Energy Information Administration. If the trend continues, fossil fuels could make up 70 percent of the development pipeline by the end of the decade. Planned fossil capacity would reach 68 gigawatts by 2030, reflecting a 45 percent jump from construction plans just six months ago.

Many of those plans could still fall through, particularly if forecasts for AI data center energy demand are overblown. But for now, renewable energy projects are being canceled at a faster clip than fossil fuels, at 4.9 percent compared to 2.9 percent of projects, respectively.

New utility-scale solar and wind farms still beat gas when it comes to cost, coming in at $68 to $69 per megawatt-hour on average compared to $90 per megawatt-hour for new combined-cycle natural gas plants, the report finds. Fossil fuels are also subject to increasing price volatility, particularly since the US instigated war with Iran. Gas and coal power plants also emit air pollutants and the greenhouse gases causing climate change, leading to more health costs. Electricity bills have risen across the nation as utilities upgrade power grids and build new energy infrastructure to meet rising demand.