More from Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi

A Nevada judge has issued a temporary restraining order, saying the company can’t operate without first getting a gaming license. This is an escalation of a turf war between the states and the CFTC over who regulates prediction markets.

Their partnership, reportedly worth up to $300 million over three years, includes giving Polymarket “access to Official League Data from Sportradar, MLB’s exclusive global distributor of data for prediction markets.”

According to the Arizona attorney general, Kalshi is illegally operating a gambling business. It’s the first criminal case against the prediction market, which told Reuters that “States like Arizona want to ​individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to ‌do ⁠it.” The case is part of an ongoing dispute between states and the CFTC about who has jurisdiction over Kalshi and similar companies.

Fresh off another round of controversial bets, accusations of insider trading, and general profiting off human suffering, the two biggest prediction markets are seeking fresh funds. According to the Wall Street Journal, both companies are trying to lure investors at a valuation of $20 billion, nearly twice last year’s.

The site seems to be drawing a line at betting on nuclear war. Even though Polymarket has allowed betting on whether or not there would be a nuclear detonation in a particular year previously, the possibility of a nuclear apocalypse in 2026 might be just a bit too real. According to 404 Media:

Every time there’s a major event, it seems like some people head to Polymarket to make a quick buck at just the right time. It happened with the Super Bowl, with Nicolás Maduro, and now with Iran. In total, over $529 million was traded related to the timing of the strikes, but according to Bloomberg:

A claim cited by the Substackers Against Nazis, and in much more recent reports. What if it also promoted service providers that make money from pushing people to gamble on and seek an edge in just about anything?

Curbed described the scene as “bleak” and noted that many waiting in line for the promised free Tide Pods and milk (which was apparently purchased at an Aldi before being stocked on the popups’ oddly orderly shelves) had never heard of Polymarket and didn’t intend to place bets there. When Curbed asked why:

An anonymous Polymarket account, created a day before the Super Bowl, bet exclusively on celebrity appearances during Bad Bunny’s performance, and got every single one right. It’s a little less alarming than the user who seemed to know Venezuelan president Maduro’s capture was coming, but no less suspicious.

First, no, we’re not, and second, I’d be happier if he said he was joining the Celtics than joining the prediction markets mess, as the still-on-the-Bucks superstar says he’s “joining Kalshi as a shareholder.”

While being banned from the Super Bowl, the two large prediction markets have suddenly felt overcome by the spirit of giving in New York City this week. Kalshi advertised a $50 giveaway today, and Polymarket announced what it says will be “New York’s first free grocery store” when it opens on February 12th.

Polymarket — the same platform someone made thousands of dollars betting on Nicolás Maduro’s arrest — has 48 hours to cease operations in Portugal after users wagered more than 103 million euros (~$120 million) on the outcome of the country’s presidential election, according to a report from CoinDesk.

“Prediction markets” continue to appear everywhere, including CNN and CNBC, and Polymarket is shitposting about citizen journalism.