Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi – The Verge

Players from the NBA, NFL, and MLB call for a ban on betting ‘unders’

2026-05-01T12:57:27-04:00

The unions backing professional NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, and MLS players are calling on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ban prediction market platforms from allowing users to bet on a player's underperformance or injury, Sports Business Journal reports. In their letter, the unions cite the need for "appropriate regulations" to protect athletes and their families from "abusive and harassing behavior."

The unions wrote the letter in response to the CFTC's request for comment on the regulation of prediction markets, such as those operated by Kalshi and Polymarket. In addition to asking for a ban on "under" bets, the unions also w …

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US arrests soldier who allegedly made $400K on Maduro Polymarket bets

2026-04-24T15:04:47-04:00

Nicolas Maduro is seen in handcuffs after landing at a Manhattan helipad on January 5, 2026 in New York City.

We knew someone made over $400,000 on suspicious Polymarket bets around the US operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, but now we have a name: Gannon Ken Van Dyke. The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York announced Thursday that Van Dyke is in custody, on several charges, including using confidential government information for personal gain.

As described in the indictment, prosecutors allege Van Dyke was directly involved in the planning and execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve" to capture Maduro, and in the days before the capture, made several transactions purchasing "$33,934 worth of 'YES' shares on Mad …

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Betting on the news raises ethical questions for journalists

2026-04-17T14:24:01-04:00

Prediction market exchanges have created an environment where just about any piece of information is potentially monetizable: How well will BTS's new song perform this week? How hot will Los Angeles get? Will Donald Trump be impeached? Users can wager on all of that and, on some platforms, more gruesome and violent outcomes in the real world.

The rapid rise and expansion of Polymarket and Kalshi have put newsrooms in a strange position. Prediction market evangelists often claim that their odds are more trustworthy and accurate than polls and traditional media - effectively positioning the industry as a replacement for news. At the same time …

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Google says Polymarket bets showing up in News was an ‘error’

2026-04-11T11:07:47-04:00

Polymarket bets started popping up in Google News alongside legitimate news articles. But now those results aren't showing, and Google says they were never supposed to. Spokesperson Ned Adriance told The Verge that "Google News is designed to show sources that create content about current issues, events, and important topics, and we have policies for sites to be eligible to appear. This site briefly appeared in Google News in error, and it is no longer surfacing in News."

The links led directly to betting markets tied to specific news events. For instance, before the results were removed, Futurism searched "will ships transit the strait," ( …

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Insider trading or random guy? It doesn’t matter to Polymarket

2026-04-02T20:26:05-04:00

In mid-March, conspiracy theories swirled claiming Benjamin Netanyahu had been replaced by an AI clone. Though there was no actual proof that the Israeli Prime Minister had been injured or killed, on X this spurred a flurry of posts promoting prediction markets where people bet on whether he would be out of office by March 31st. One newly created Polymarket account in particular caught the attention of bettors: dududududu22, which had purchased more than $177,000 worth of "Yes" shares at 4.7 cents. Surely, only someone with inside knowledge would take such a risky position?

"This makes him possible to get paid of $3,779,000 in case of win," …

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Kalshi says it will block politicians and athletes from trading in markets they’re tied to

2026-03-23T16:24:43-04:00

The prediction market platform Kalshi says it's rolling out new guardrails to "preemptively block" political candidates and athletes from trading in their own markets, as reported earlier by Axios. In addition to blocking political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, Kalshi says its system will also prevent professional and college sports athletes, referees, and personnel from trading in sports they're involved in:

The guardrails we built use state-of-the-art technology and screening lists, but no screening system is perfect, and motivated bad actors consistently try to find a way. To that end, we are also adding a whistleblowe …

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Prediction markets are trying to lure journalists with partnership deals

2026-03-19T13:00:42-04:00

Prediction markets are working to ingratiate themselves with mainstream news and culture: The Golden Globes broadcast in January was plastered with Polymarket odds, the AP is licensing election data to Kalshi, and a partnership between Polymarket and Substack means more prediction market data in newsletters.

Some prediction market exchanges are now attempting to strike deals with individual reporters. Rick Ellis, an independent entertainment journalist who runs AllYourScreens.com and writes a newsletter on Substack about TV and streaming, told The Verge he received an offer this week.

The deal involved producing two stories a week based on …

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Oh, you think the government will regulate Kalshi and Polymarket? Wanna bet?

2026-03-18T10:20:24-04:00

Who’s keeping an ear out for insiders? | Image: Cath Virginia / The Verge, Getty Images

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has a problem: It's not very good at policing insider trading. And insider trading has become a pressing concern for prediction markets.

Even Kalshi's recently publicized fines for insider trading - levied against a politician and an employee of YouTube influencer MrBeast - were effectively self-policing. The exchange says it's opened 200 investigations, frozen some accounts, and had a dozen of its investigations turn into active cases.

"The volume of suspicious activity we see is significantly higher than what any platform publicly acknowledges."

In response to Kalshi's announcement, the CFTC put …

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Prediction markets want the Oscars to be your gateway drug to betting on everything

2026-03-14T11:23:56-04:00

Though it was weird to see the Golden Globes partner with Polymarket for its most recent awards show, the collaboration wasn't shocking given the way that people have begun using prediction markets to gamble on basically anything. Prediction markets are being used to bet on everything from when wars might break out to who will win the Nobel Peace Prize, so why wouldn't people also be interested in placing wagers on more entertaining and less consequential things, like celebrities' chances of winning industry accolades?

But this "everything is gambling" culture has given prediction market firms an opportunity to insert themselves into other …

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Everything from the last week of everything is gambling now

2026-03-09T17:18:26-04:00

Kalshi is facing backlash from its own users after a class action lawsuit was filed last week alleging it failed to pay out as promised for wagers regarding when Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave or be removed from office. Khamenei was killed in strikes on Iran last month, but according to the lawsuit, Kalshi didn't implement a "death carveout" until after Khamenei had died.

Meanwhile, Kalshi is reportedly working to attract more women to its platform in an effort to grow its user base. As the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, the percentage of women using Kalshi has doubled over the past ten months, growing …

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